Randy Blach CattleFax at NCBA

(Randy) Good morning. I’m Randy Blach with CattleFax. We had our 2015 Outlook Conference yesterday here in San Antonio and we shared with producers what’s going on, trying to give ’em a feel of the macro landscape within the entire protein industry. We’ve had a situation where the market has basically been short of beef, pork and poultry supply. It was a perfect storm as we coined it in here a year ago at this time. We could see this setting up. There wouldn’t be enough protein in any of these production segments to meet the growing demand, U.S. and globally. Now over the course of the last 12 months we’ve started to see things change a little bit. We are now set where we’ll have a four to five percent increase in pork and poultry production in 2015. Beef will still be a little bit smaller in ’15 but we’re setting the stage for increased supplies as we look at 2016, ’17 and ’18. So things will be very good in the industry for the next several years, but the trend is pretty well…the up trend is going to now flatten out. One of the big things that we see in the industry is a lot of the basic things haven’t changed. When you have green grass and profitability producers respond. We had record profitability in 2014 and we had much, much improved grazing conditions. Actually in the last 25 years, 2014 was the second best grazing conditions we’ve had in 25 years. That’s pretty phenomenal. And we responded- as an industry we responded. We’ve got about 600,000 more beef cows that are scheduled to calf in here this spring. We expect to see another 750,000 head to a million more as we go into 2016. So, the data works. You know producers respond to economic signal, good and bad. Fortunately we are responding to good signals today. I think as you look at it, what’s driving the good signal? What is going on in our industry? The big thing I would share with producers is this-beef demand in the United States has increased $225 dollars per head since 2009. If we go back to 1998, which was the low in beef demand, we’ve increased $240 dollars per head. The value of beef and beef byproducts exports was $353 dollars per head in 2014. That’s a huge story. It’s growing at the rate of six percent a year over the last 20 years. So, if we continue to have access to more and more consumers around the globe, what’s that tell us? Only four percent of the population’s in the United States, isn’t it? That’s a tremendous opportunity for U.S. beef, pork, poultry producers to be able to access consumers around the world that want more protein in
their diet.

No Comments Yet.

Leave a reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.